Throughout its history, humanity has used the natural resources of its native planet free of charge. The benefits placed at our disposal by nature were taken for granted. Parallel to the development of human civilization there was a merciless appropriation of earthly wealth. Even though our earthly home is huge, it is able to independently regulate the processes occurring in nature, but still, the human environment today does not look as ideal as it was during the last 1-2 thousand years ago. One of the most visible consequences of the development of human civilization is global climate change.

Over the past 150-200 years, when humanity entered the active phase of its development, the climate on the planet has changed quite noticeably. The geography of the planet has changed, the living conditions in different parts Earth. Where previously there were ideal weather conditions, the climate changes, the habitat becomes harsher and less hospitable. Fewer and fewer conditions remain necessary for the normal and prosperous existence of the human race.

What is the essence of the warming problem?

It should be recognized that the consequences of global warming are not entirely the result of thoughtless human activity. Changes in the planet's climatic conditions are influenced by a number of factors.

On the scale of the Universe, our civilization is a fleeting period. What are 200 thousand years of existence of Homo sapiens compared to 4.5 billion years of life of our planet? Over the entire period of the Earth's existence, the climate on its surface has changed several times. Dry and hot periods gave way to global cooling, which ended with ice ages. Huge glaciers covered most of the planet with their shell. The further consequences of global warming in prehistoric times became catastrophic. Melting glaciers led to large-scale floods. The rapidly rising ocean level on the planet led to the flooding of vast areas.

According to scientists, the process of global warming began a long time ago and without human intervention. This is facilitated by the natural course of geophysical and astrophysical processes occurring in our solar system, in our galaxy and in the Universe. The theory that existed at the end of the 20th century that humans are to a certain extent involved in the deterioration of the climate situation in the world has now been revised. Analysis of the disasters that have engulfed our planet in the last 20-30 years, the study of astrophysical and geophysical data have given scientists reason to believe that the emerging changes in climate are dynamic. To date, two factors have been identified that influence changes in weather conditions on the planet and climate transformation:

• natural;
• anthropogenic.

The first factor is uncontrollable and is explained by the inevitable processes occurring in space. The increasing expansion of the Universe affects the astrophysical parameters of the movement of all celestial bodies. In other words, the presence of climate changes on our planet is a consequence of the cyclical nature of astronomical processes.

While one category of scientists is closely studying the influence of the Universe on earthly processes, another part has begun to study the scale negative influence human civilization on the natural environment. The impact of anthropogenic factors began with the advent of the industrial revolution. New technologies and the subsequent globalization of the economy have led to a rapid deterioration of the environmental situation on the planet. As a result, anthropogenic factors began to influence the environment and influence the planetary climate from year to year.

The harm caused is local in nature, and therefore is not so noticeable at the regional level. However, in total harmful influence human impact on the Earth's biosphere is on a global scale. As a result of emissions of petrochemical and metallurgical enterprises The content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing. Deforestation of equatorial forests in Brazil, in turn, leads to a decrease in oxygen in the atmosphere of our planet. All this and much more leads to the greenhouse effect. As a result, there is an increase in the average temperature on the planet, polar ice is melting and, accordingly, the level of the world's oceans is rising.

It becomes obvious that it is necessary to radically change our attitude towards our own planet. This can be achieved by eliminating or limiting anthropogenic factors that have a harmful effect on our environment.

The problem is of a planetary scale, so it is necessary to study it and find a solution through joint efforts. Individual activities some specific international organizations and social movements will not solve the problem. But unfortunately, at present there is a global situation of misunderstanding of what is happening, lack of a real and objective assessment of the factors influencing climate conditions.

New facts in the history of global warming

Studies of ice samples taken from a two-kilometer depth at the Vostok station in Antarctica have shown a significant change in the chemical composition of the Earth’s atmosphere over two hundred thousand years. As mentioned, the climate on Earth has not always been uniform and stable. However, now information has appeared in the scientific community that the main causes of global warming in the prehistoric era were associated not only with geophysical processes, but also with high concentration greenhouse gases – CO2 and CH4 (methane). Glaciers have always melted. Another thing is that today this process is happening faster. Global warming on earth can occur much earlier - not in a thousand, not in a hundred, but much faster - within ten years.

According to the amount of greenhouse gases in earth's atmosphere The 20th century looks like a record-breaking one. We can say that this is due to the influence of cyclic natural factors, however, today these processes clearly cannot do without human participation. Climate change occurs more dynamically than is determined by the natural cycle. Real to that confirmation is the rapidly increasing number of cataclysms on a planetary scale.

According to scientists from the Faculty of Meteorology at the University of Washington, in the 80s of the 20th century, the planet experienced an average of 100-120 disasters and natural disasters per year. In the 2000s, the number of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and other natural disasters occurring annually on the planet increased 5 times. Droughts began to occur much more often, and the duration of the monsoon rainy season increased.

According to meteorologists, this is a direct consequence of the fact that fluctuations in atmospheric temperatures on the planet have become significant. Seasonality on Earth ceases to be the norm, the boundaries between warm and cold periods become clearer and more expressive. Cold winter abruptly gives way to hot summer and vice versa. Following the warm season, cold weather comes sharply. In areas of the planet where a mild maritime climate prevailed, the number of hot and dry days increases. In cold regions, instead of bitter frosts, a prolonged thaw is observed.

The intensive increase in the use of organic fuels in industry and in human life leads to an increase in emissions of CO2, methane and nitrogen oxide into the atmosphere. The predominance of these gases in the earth's atmosphere prevents heat exchange between air layers, creating a greenhouse effect. The earth's surface, heated by solar energy and “wrapped” in an air coat of greenhouse gases, gives off less heat and, accordingly, heats up faster.

Most of all, an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases is fraught with the following circumstances:

• increase in air mass temperature;
• changes in the localization of precipitation formation zones in the earth’s atmosphere;
• increasing intensity and expressiveness of climate and weather phenomena;
• melting glaciers;
• decrease in fresh water reserves;
• rising sea levels;
• changing existing ecosystems on the planet.

A change in the average annual temperature of just 1-2 degrees leads to irreversible consequences that entail a chain reaction. The rising average temperature on the planet is leading to the rapid melting of glaciers on the planet, and the area of ​​the ice shell of Greenland and Antarctica is decreasing. The average annual thickness of snow cover in Siberia and the Canadian tundra is decreasing. The ice cover that binds the Arctic Ocean is shrinking.

The glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica - the richest natural reserves of fresh water on the planet - are irreversibly dissolving into ocean salt water. The water level of the world's oceans is rising, but due to rising seawater temperatures and desalination, the population of commercial fish is decreasing. Accordingly, fishing is also declining, and as a result of natural evaporation, vast areas of agricultural land are becoming scarce. In place of fields and rice paddies, zones of semi-deserts and deserts are rapidly appearing, completely unsuitable for growing agricultural crops.

As a direct consequence of global temperature changes, famine and large-scale coastal flooding are becoming an increasingly likely threat to humanity.

The amount of water resulting from the rapid melting of the glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica will lead to a rise in the water level of the world's oceans by 11-15 meters. Huge areas will be flooded in the countries of Europe, Asia, Africa and states located in the Western Hemisphere, where up to 60% of the planet's population lives.

According to scientists, flooding of coastal areas with sea water in the next 20-30 years will cause natural migration of the population inland. An increase in temperature in the permafrost zone will lead to swamping of vast areas of Western and Eastern Siberia, which will ultimately become unsuitable for development. Changes in the intensity of precipitation and a decrease in fresh water supplies will lead to the beginning new struggle for the redistribution of resources.

Finding a solution to global warming

Climate change on the planet is not a private problem. This is a slow-moving disaster that will eventually affect everyone. In this regard, ways to solve it are the task of governments of all countries. It is not for nothing that the scale of the problem and its aspects are dominant and discussed at the highest international level.

The efforts achieved to date in this direction are encouraging. For the first time, it was recognized at the state level that it is humans and their commercial activities that lead to an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the planet’s atmosphere. Under pressure from the scientific community and public environmental organizations around the world, politicians in the most developed countries signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. This agreement is intended to regulate the amount of industrial emissions that contain high amounts of greenhouse gases. The main goal of the Kyoto Protocol was the desire to reduce the volume of harmful emissions by 5.2% and bring pollution parameters to the 1990 level. The atmosphere, as a result, should be cleared of harmful gaseous compounds, which will lead to a reduction in the greenhouse effect.

Within the framework of the Kyoto document, quotas for harmful emissions were determined:

• for EU countries, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions will need to be reduced by 8%;
• for the United States, emissions would need to be reduced by 7%;
• Canada and Japan have pledged to reduce this figure by 6%;
• for the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe the amount of greenhouse gases in emissions will have to decrease by 8%;
• For Russian Federation and Ukraine, a special, favorable regime has been created, as a result of which the economies of both countries must adhere to the parameters of harmful gas emissions at the 1990 level.

Despite the global scale of the event, not all countries with massive sources of emissions have ratified this agreement at the state level. For example, the United States, the country with the largest economy on the planet, has not yet completed the ratification process. Canada generally withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, and China and India only recently became members of international climate agreements.

The latest achievement in the fight to preserve the planet's climate was the Paris International Climate Conference, held in December 2018. During the conference, new quotas for greenhouse gas emissions were determined and new requirements were announced for the governments of countries whose economies are dependent on the use of mineral species fuel for industrial facilities. The new agreement defined ways for the development of alternative energy sources. The emphasis is on the development of hydropower, increasing the heat content in production technologies, and the use of solar panels.

The fight against global warming today

Unfortunately, today industrial giants scattered around the world have concentrated more than 40% of the world economy in their hands. A noble desire to limit the amount of emissions of harmful components into the atmosphere by introducing restrictions in the field industrial production in a number of countries looks like an attempt to put artificial pressure on the economies of competitors.

Global warming in Russia is assessed as one of the limiting factors in the development of the domestic economy. Despite the country's active position on the world stage in matters of climate protection and conservation, the country's economy is heavily dependent on the use of mineral fuels. The weak energy intensity of the domestic industry and the slow transition to modern energy-intensive technologies are becoming a serious obstacle to real achievements in this direction.

Our near future will show how true all this turns out to be. Whether global warming is a myth or a cruel reality, other generations of businessmen and politicians will find out.

If you have any questions, leave them in the comments below the article. We or our visitors will be happy to answer them

Global warming (interglacials) over the past 0.5 million years.
Climate indicators: sea level change (blue), 18 O concentration in sea water, CO 2 concentration in Antarctic ice. The division of the time scale is 20,000 years. Peaks in sea level, CO 2 concentrations, and minima in 18 O coincide with interglacial temperature maxima.

Climate systems change as a result of natural internal processes, and in response to external influences (anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic). At the same time, geological and paleontological data show the presence of long-term climatic cycles, which in the Quaternary period took the form of periodic glaciations, with the present time falling on the interglacial period (see figure).

The causes of such climate changes remain unknown, but the main external influences include changes in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles), solar activity (including changes in the solar constant), volcanic emissions and the greenhouse effect. According to direct climate observations (temperature measurements over the past 200 years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain a matter of debate. One of the most widely discussed causes is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

There is scientific consensus that current Global warming is highly likely explained by human activity and caused by an anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, and, as a result, an increase in the greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse gas emissions

The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first quantitatively studied by Svante Arrhenius in . This is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes heating of the planet's atmosphere and surface.

On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: water vapor (responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), carbon dioxide (CO 2) (9-26%), methane (CH 4) (4-9%) and ozone (3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 have increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century. According to separate studies, such concentration levels have been achieved for the first time in the last 650 thousand years - a period for which reliable data were obtained from samples polar ice.

About half of all greenhouse gases produced during economic activity humanity remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the past 20 years resulted from the extraction and combustion of oil, natural gas, and coal, with about half of the volume of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions being sequestered by terrestrial vegetation and the ocean. Most of the remaining CO 2 emissions are caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation, but the rate of carbon dioxide sequestration by terrestrial vegetation exceeds the rate of its anthropogenic release due to deforestation.

Other theories

Change in solar activity

Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain changes in the Earth's temperature by corresponding changes in solar activity.

The third IPCC report states that solar and volcanic activity could explain half of the temperature changes before 1950, but their overall effect after that was roughly zero. In particular, the impact of the greenhouse effect since 1750, according to the IPCC, is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

Later work refined the estimates of solar activity's contribution to warming after 1950. However, the conclusions remained roughly the same: “The best estimates of the contribution of solar activity to warming range from 16% to 36% of the contribution of the greenhouse effect” (“Are Models Underestimating the Contribution of the Greenhouse Effect?” Solar Activity in Recent Climate Changes,” Peter A. Scott et al., Journal of Climate, December 15, 2003).

However, there are a number of studies suggesting the existence of mechanisms that enhance the effect of solar activity, which are not taken into account in current models, or that the importance of solar activity in comparison with other factors is underestimated. Such claims are disputed but are an active area of ​​research.

Little Ice Age theory

According to one hypothesis, global warming will lead to a stop or serious weakening of the Gulf Stream. This will cause a significant drop in average temperatures in Europe (while temperatures in other regions will rise, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent by transporting warm water from the tropics.

According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donne, in the cryoera there is an oscillatory process in which glaciation (ice age) is generated by climate warming, and deglaciation (exit from ice age) - colder weather. This is due to the fact that in the Cenozoic, which is a cryoera, with the thawing of the polar ice caps, the amount of precipitation in high latitudes increases, which in winter leads to a local increase in albedo. Subsequently, the temperature of the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere decreases, followed by the formation of glaciers. When the polar ice caps freeze, glaciers in the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, not receiving enough recharge in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.

Reconstruction of the consequences

Restoration is of great importance in reconstructing the possible consequences of modern climate fluctuations. natural conditions the previous interglacial - Mikulinsky - which took place after the end of the Rissky (Dnieper) glaciation. During the warmest epochs of the Mikulino interglacial, the temperature was several degrees higher than the modern one (established based on isotope analyzes of microorganism remains and gas inclusions in the cover glaciers of Antarctica and Greenland), the boundaries of natural zones were shifted northward by several hundred kilometers compared to modern ones. When reconstructing the warmer periods of the modern interglacial - the so-called Holocene Climatic Optimum, which took place from 6 to 5 thousand years ago, the following was established. The average annual temperature was 2-3 degrees higher than modern ones, and the boundaries of natural zones were also located north of modern ones (their general plan of geographical distribution approximately coincided with the Mikulino interglacial). From the available data on paleogeography, it is logical to assume that with a further increase in temperatures geographic envelope will transform in a similar way. This contradicts the hypotheses about the cooling of northern Europe and North America and the displacement of natural zones in these regions to the south from their current position.

The mutual influence of climate change and ecosystems is still poorly understood. It remains unclear whether the effects of global warming are being enhanced or weakened by natural mechanisms. For example, an increase in carbon concentration leads to an intensification of plant photosynthesis, which prevents the increase in concentration. On the other hand, the increase in the area of ​​drylands reduces the processing of carbon dioxide.

Forecast

• The European Union must reduce emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by 8%.
• USA - by 7%.
• Japan - by 6%.

The protocol provides for a system of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence lies in the fact that each country (so far this applies only to thirty-eight countries that have committed to reducing emissions) receives permission to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. It is assumed that some countries or companies will exceed the emission quota. In such cases, these countries or companies will be able to buy the right to additional emissions from those countries or companies whose emissions are less than the allocated quota. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 5% over the next 15 years will be achieved.

There is a conflict on interstate level. Developing countries such as India and China, which contribute significantly to greenhouse gas pollution, attended the Kyoto meeting but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries are generally wary of the environmental initiatives of industrialized countries. The arguments are simple:

• The main pollution by greenhouse gases is carried out by developed countries
• Tightening controls will benefit industrial countries, as this will hinder the economic development of developing countries.
• Greenhouse gas pollution has accumulated in developed countries in the process of their development.

Criticism of the concept of anthropogenic global warming

The famous British naturalist and TV presenter David Bellamy believes that the most important environmental problem planet is a decrease in the area of ​​tropical forests in South America. In his opinion, the danger of global warming is greatly exaggerated, while the disappearance of forests, in which two-thirds of all animal and plant species on the planet live, is indeed a real and serious threat to humanity.

Russian theoretical physicist V.G. Gorshkov came to a similar conclusion, based on the theory of biotic regulation he had been developing since 1979, according to which irreversible climate changes are more likely to be caused not by greenhouse gases, but by a violation of the homeostatic mechanism of global moisture and heat transfer, which is ensured vegetation of the planet - subject to some threshold reduction in the area of ​​natural forests.

The famous American physicist Freeman Dyson argues that the measures proposed to combat global warming have long ceased to belong to the realm of science, but are politicking and speculative business.

The founder of the Weather Channel, journalist John Coleman, considers “so-called global warming to be the greatest scam in history.” According to him, “some vile and cowardly scientists for the sake of protecting environment Long-term weather observations are being blatantly manipulated for various political purposes to create the illusion of global warming. There will be no rapid climate change. Humankind's impact on the Earth's climate is negligible. Our planet is not in danger. In one or two decades, the inconsistency of the theory of global warming will be obvious to everyone.”

Changes in the average temperature of the Earth over the past 500 million years. Throughout most of Earth's history, temperatures have been significantly higher than they are today.

There is also a moderate position, according to which, although the influence of the anthropogenic factor on the current warming is increasing, it is still much less than the influence of natural factors. This point of view is shared, in particular, by Russian climate change specialist V. Klimenko.

University of East Anglia Norwich leak incident (November 2009)

Figures and facts

Map of changes in the thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red colors, thickening in blue.

One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.

The mass of Antarctic ice is decreasing at an accelerating pace. However, the area of ​​Antarctic glaciation is growing.

An acceleration of the process of permafrost degradation has been noted.

Other aspects of climate change

Global climate change is not limited to warming. There is also a change in the salt density of the oceans, an increase in air humidity, a change in the nature of rainfall and the melting of Arctic ice at a rate of approximately 600 thousand square meters. km per decade. The atmosphere becomes wetter, with more rainfall at high and low latitudes and less rainfall in tropical and subtropical regions.

See also

Notes

1. Brohan, P.; J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, P. D. Jones (2006-06-24). “Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850.” Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (D12): D12106. DOI:10.1029/2005JD006548. ISSN 0148-0227. Retrieved 2012-12-24.
2. Climate Change, 2001. Consequences, adaptation and vulnerability. IPCC Technical Summary for Policy Makers. III report, 2001
3. Climate Change and Biodiversity. IPCC Technical Paper V - April 2002
4. IPCC. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers), IPCC.
5. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
6. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
7. http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/SSR_Paper.pdf
8. http://www.envirotruth.org/docs/Veizer-Shaviv.pdf (unavailable link)
9. http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Solar-ClimateLAUTPREPRINT.pdf
10. http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Rahmstorf%20et%20al.%202004%20EOS.pdf
11. Kirill Eskov, “History of the Earth and life on it: From chaos to man.” - M.: NC ENAS, 2004. - 312 p. - 10,000 copies. ISBN 5-93196-477-0
12. Global heat transfer modes:
    • cryoera - continental climate on land in combination with warm oceans (which is explained by the position of the continents in the equatorial zone), as a result of which heat is transferred in the hydrosphere from the equatorial zone to high latitudes (for example, the Gulf Stream), as a result of which anticyclones develop in the atmosphere at polar latitudes , and monsoon rains do not reach high latitudes.
    • thermoera - an even warm climate on land (for example, in the Jurassic period), combined with an analogue of a continental climate for the oceans (which is explained by the absence of continents in the equatorial zone), leading to the fact that heat transfer from the equatorial zone to high latitudes does not occur in the hydrosphere, as a result, global heat transfer is carried out by the atmosphere, and not by the oceans, and as a result, there are no anticyclones in the polar latitudes, and monsoon rains reach high latitudes, leveling the climate on land.
13. The role of terrestrial ecosystems in greenhouse gas sequestration: more questions than answers
14. UN System Action on Climate Change
15. Review of the activities of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
16. Reporting on Climate Change, pp.14-15
17. The scientist was suspended from the BBC for denying global warming (November 6, 2008). Retrieved December 15, 2009.
18. Publications on biotic regulation
19. Elements: Heretical thoughts about science and society
20. http://elementy.ru/download/dyson/rus_01.wmv Video recording of a lecture with a Russian simultaneous translation
21. John Coleman Says Global Warming Is a Myth (November 11, 2007). Retrieved December 15, 2009.
22. Bjorn Lomborg. Cool it down! Global warming. Skeptical Guide = Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming / T. Pasmurov. - Peter Press LLC, 2008. - 202 pp. - (World bestseller). - 4000 copies - ISBN 978-5-388-00065 -1
23. http://www.lenta.ru/conf/kapitsa/ | Internet press conference of Andrei Petrovich Kapitsa, Correspondent Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of Moscow State University
24. Climate sensation. What awaits us in the near and distant future?
25. Climate trick
26. Climatic Research Unit emails, data, models, 1996-2009 - WikiLeaks
27. Sceptics publish climate e-mails "stolen from East Anglia University"
28. HadCRUT
29. Lies, Mr. Gordon - Greenpeace's response to A. Gordon's program on Channel 1
30. Science news: the destruction of Antarctica's ice shelves is a direct threat to the planet's ecological balance
31. Skeptical Science: Antarctica is gaining ice
32. The expansion of Antarctica has been attributed to global warming. Lenta.ru (August 18, 2010). Archived from the original on August 26, 2011. Retrieved September 3, 2010.
33. Global warming and permafrost thawing: risk assessment for production facilities of the Russian fuel and energy complex
34. Error in footnotes? : Invalid tag ; no text provided for bbc footnotes

Links

Portals

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Public information portal “Global Climate Change”

Reports, reports

• Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in Russian
• Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009. Review of the latest climate science news, in Russian. - UNSW, Sydney, Australia
• (English) John E. Walsh, James E. Overland, Pavel Y. Groisman, Bruno Rudolf. Ongoing Climate Change in the Arctic. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 2012

Articles and books

• A. Sergeev, Global warming, or High degree of politics // Around the world, 2006 No. 7
• Ivashchenko O. V., Climate change and changes in greenhouse gas circulation cycles in the atmosphere-lithosphere-hydrosphere system - feedbacks can significantly enhance the greenhouse effect.
• A. V. Pavlov, G. F. Gravis. Permafrost and modern climate // GEO.WEB.RU
• Melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere
• B. Luchkov. The coming years (climate and weather of the XXI century) // Science and Life, 2007 No. 10
• Bjorn Lomborg. “Cool it! Global warming. Skeptical Guide", 2007, ISBN 978-5-388-00065-1
• Bjorn Lomborg. Stupid fear of global warming.

International agreements

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - official website (in English, Spanish and French)
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change // UN website (rus)
• Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change // UN website (rus)

Other

• Weather: Global warming, program “Special Correspondent” by Alexander Khabarov // Russia channel
• Experiment on distributed climate modeling in the 21st century
• Sceptical Science - a critical review of the arguments against modern global warming and its anthropogenic nature (Russian)

Climate, Climatology

Global warming was once a fancy term used by scientists who were increasingly concerned about the effects of pollution on long-term weather patterns. Today, the idea of ​​global warming on earth is well known, but not entirely understood.
It's not unusual for someone to complain about a hot day and remark, "It's global warming."

Well, is that so? In this article we will learn what global warming is, what causes it, what the current and possible future consequences are. While there is a scientific consensus on global warming, some aren't sure it's something we need to worry about.

We'll look at some of the proposed changes being made by scientists related to curbing global warming and the criticisms and concerns surrounding it.

Global warming is a significant increase in the temperature of the Earth over a relatively short period of time as a result of human activities.

In particular, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius over a period of one hundred to two hundred years will be considered as global warming of the Earth. Over the course of one century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant.

To understand what this means, let's start by looking at the difference between weather and climate.

What is weather and climate

The weather is local and short-term. If snow falls in the city where you live next Tuesday, it's the weather.

Climate is long-term and does not apply to one small location. An area's climate is the average weather conditions in a region over a long period of time.

If the part you live in has cold winters with a lot of snow, that's the climate for the region you live in. We know, for example, that in some areas the winters were cold and snowy, so we know what to expect.

It's important to understand that when we talk about long-term climate, we really mean long-term. Even a few hundred years is pretty short term when it comes to climate. In fact, sometimes it takes tens of thousands of years. This means that if you are lucky enough to have a winter that is not as cold as usual, with little snow, or even two or three such winters in a row, it is not climate change. It is simply an anomaly—an event that falls outside the normal statistical range but does not represent any consistent long-term change.

Facts about global warming

It is also important to understand and know the facts about global warming as even small changes in climate can have serious consequences.

• When scientists talk about the “Ice Age,” you probably imagine a world frozen, covered in snow, and suffering from frigid temperatures. In fact, during the last Ice Age (ice ages recur approximately every 50,000 to 100,000 years), the average temperature of the earth was only 5 degrees Celsius cooler than today's average temperatures.
• Global warming is a significant increase in the Earth's temperature over a relatively short period of time as a result of human activity.
• In particular, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius over a period of one hundred to two hundred years will be considered global warming.
• Over the course of one century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant.
• Scientists have determined that the Earth warmed by 0.6 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2000.
• Of the last 12 years, 11 were among the most warm years since 1850. was 2016.
• The warming trend of the last 50 years is almost double that of the last 100 years, which means the rate of warming is accelerating.
• Ocean temperatures increased to at least a depth of 3,000 meters; The ocean absorbs more than 80 percent of all heat added to the climate system.
• Glaciers and snow cover have decreased in regions both in the North and Southern Hemispheres, which contributed to sea level rise.
• Average Arctic temperatures have nearly doubled the global average over the past 100 years.
• Area covered frozen lands in the Arctic, has declined by about 7 percent since 1900, with seasonal declines of up to 15 percent.
• In the eastern regions of Northern and South America, Northern Europe and parts of Asia experienced an increase in precipitation; in other regions, such as the Mediterranean and southern Africa, there is a drying trend.
• Droughts are more intense, lasting longer and covering larger areas than in the past.
• There were significant changes in temperature extremes - hot days and heat waves were more frequent while cold days and nights were less frequent.
• While scientists have not observed an increase in the number of tropical storms, they have observed an increase in the intensity of such storms in the Atlantic Ocean, correlating with rising ocean surface temperatures.

Natural climate changes

Scientists have determined that it takes thousands of years for the Earth to naturally warm or cool 1 degree. In addition to the repeating cycles of the Ice Age, Earth's climate can change due to volcanic activity, differences in plant life, changes in the amount of radiation from the sun, and natural changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Global warming on Earth is caused by an increase in the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect itself allows our planet to remain warm enough for life.

While it's not a perfect analogy, you can think of the Earth as your car parked on a sunny day. You've probably noticed that the inside of a car is always much hotter than the temperature outside if the car has been sitting in the sun for some time. The sun's rays penetrate through the car windows. Some of the heat from the sun is absorbed by the seats, dashboard, carpeting and floor mats. When these objects release this heat, it doesn't all escape through the windows. Some heat is reflected back. The heat emitted by the seats is a different wavelength than the sunlight that entered through the windows in the first place.

Thus, a certain amount energy comes in and less energy goes out. The result is a gradual increase in temperature inside the car.

The essence of the greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect and its essence are much more complex than the temperature in the sun inside the car. When the sun's rays hit the Earth's atmosphere and surface, approximately 70 percent of the energy remains on the planet, absorbed by the land, oceans, plants and other things. The remaining 30 percent is reflected in space by clouds, snow fields and other reflective surfaces. But even the 70 percent that passes does not remain on the earth forever (otherwise the earth will become a blazing fireball). The Earth's oceans and land masses eventually radiate heat. Some of this heat ends up in space. The rest is absorbed and ends up in certain parts of the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane gas and water vapor. These components in our atmosphere absorb all the heat that they emit. Heat that does not penetrate the earth's atmosphere keeps the planet warmer than in outer space because it enters through the atmosphere. more energy than it turns out. This is the essence of the greenhouse effect, which keeps the earth warm.

Earth without greenhouse effect

What would the Earth look like if there were no greenhouse effect at all? It will likely be very similar to Mars. Mars doesn't have a thick enough atmosphere to reflect enough heat back to the planet, so it gets very cold there.

Some scientists have suggested that if implemented, we could terraform the surface of Mars by sending out "factories" that would spew water vapor and carbon dioxide into the air. If enough material can be created, the atmosphere can begin to thicken enough to retain more heat and allow plants to live on the surface. Once plants spread across Mars, they would begin to produce oxygen. In a few hundred or thousand years, Mars may actually have an environment where humans can simply walk, thanks to the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect occurs due to certain natural substances in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, humans have been pouring huge amounts of these substances into the air since the Industrial Revolution. The main ones are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colorless gas that is a by-product of combustion of organic matter. It makes up less than 0.04 percent of Earth's atmosphere, most of which was deposited by volcanic activity very early in the planet's life. Today, human activity is pumping huge volumes of CO2 into the atmosphere, leading to an overall increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. These elevated concentrations are considered a major contributor to global warming because carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation. Most of the energy that leaves Earth's atmosphere comes in this form, so extra CO2 means more energy absorption and an overall rise in the planet's temperature.

Carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Earth's largest volcano Mauna Loa, Hawaii reports that carbon dioxide emissions worldwide have increased from about 1 billion tons in 1900 to about 7 billion tons in 1995. also notes that the average temperature of the Earth's surface increased from 14.5 degrees C in 1860 to 15.3 degrees C in 1980.

The pre-industrial amount of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere was about 280 parts per million, which means that for every million molecules of dry air, 280 of them were CO2. In contrast to the 2017 level, CO2 share is 379 mg.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is another important greenhouse gas. Although the amounts released by human activity are not as large as the amount of CO2, nitrous oxide absorbs much more energy than CO2 (about 270 times more). For this reason, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also focus on N2O. Usage large quantity nitrogen fertilizers on crops release nitrous oxide in large quantities and is also a by-product of combustion.

Methane is a flammable gas and is the main component natural gas. Methane occurs naturally through decomposition organic material and is often found as "swamp gas".

Man-made processes produce methane in several ways:

• By extracting it from coal
• From large herds of livestock (i.e. digestive gases)
• From bacteria in rice fields
• Decomposition of waste in landfills

Methane acts in the same way as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, absorbing infrared energy and storing thermal energy on Earth. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 was 1,774 parts per billion. Although there is not as much methane in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, methane can absorb and release twenty times more heat than CO2. Some scientists even suggest that large-scale release of methane into the atmosphere (for example, due to the release of huge chunks of methane ice trapped beneath the oceans) could have created the short periods of intense global warming that led to some of the mass extinctions in the planet's distant past.

Carbon dioxide and methane concentrations

Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in 2017 exceeded their natural limits over the past 650,000 years. Much of this increase in concentration is due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Scientists know that an average drop of just 5 degrees Celsius over thousands of years could trigger an ice age.

• If the temperature increases

So what would happen if the Earth's average temperature increased by a few degrees in just a few hundred years? There is no clear answer. Even short-term weather forecasts are never completely accurate because weather is a complex phenomenon. When it comes to long-term climate forecasts, all we can manage are guesses based on knowledge of climate through history.

However, it can be stated that Glaciers and ice shelves around the world are melting. The loss of large areas of surface ice could accelerate Earth's global warming because less energy from the sun would be reflected. The immediate result of melting glaciers will be rising sea levels. Initially, sea level rise will be only 3-5 centimeters. Even small increases in sea level can cause flooding problems in low-lying coastal areas. However, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melts and collapses into the sea, it will raise sea levels by 10 meters and many coastal areas will disappear completely under the ocean.

Research Projections Show Sea Level Rise

Scientists estimate that sea levels rose by 17 centimeters in the 20th century. Scientists predict sea levels will rise throughout the 21st century, with levels rising between 17 and 50 centimeters by 2100. Scientists cannot yet address changes in ice flow in these forecasts due to a lack of scientific data. Sea levels are likely to be higher than the forecast range, but we can't be sure how much until more data is collected on the effects of global warming on ice flows.

As overall ocean temperatures rise, ocean storms such as tropical storms and hurricanes, which derive their fierce and destructive energy from warm waters, through which they pass, can increase the strength.

If rising temperatures affect glaciers and ice shelves, could the polar ice caps be at risk of melting and rising oceans?

Impact of water vapor and other greenhouse gases

Water vapor is the most common greenhouse gas, but it is most often the result of climate change rather than anthropogenic emissions. Water or moisture on the Earth's surface absorbs heat from the sun and the environment. When enough heat has been absorbed, some of the liquid molecules may have enough energy to evaporate and begin to rise into the atmosphere as vapor. As the steam rises higher and higher, the temperature of the surrounding air becomes lower and lower. Eventually, the steam loses enough heat to the surrounding air to allow it to return to the liquid. The gravitational pull of the earth then causes the liquid to "fall" downwards, completing the cycle. This cycle is also called "positive feedback."

Water vapor is harder to measure than other greenhouse gases, and scientists are unsure exactly what role it plays in Earth's global warming. Scientists believe there is a correlation between the increase in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere and the increase in water vapor.

As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it ends up condensing into clouds, which are more able to reflect solar radiation (allowing less energy to reach the earth's surface and warm it).

Are the polar ice caps in danger of melting and rising oceans? It might happen, but no one knows when it might happen.

The main ice cover on earth is Antarctica on South Pole, where about 90 percent of the world's ice and 70 percent of fresh water. Antarctica is covered with ice averaging 2133 m thick.

If all the ice in Antarctica melts, sea levels around the world will rise by about 61 meters. But the average air temperature in Antarctica is -37 ° C, so the ice there is not in danger of melting.

On the other side of the world, at the North Pole, the ice is not as thick as at the South Pole. Ice floats in the Arctic Ocean. If it melts, sea level will not be affected.

There is a significant amount of ice covering Greenland, which would add another 7 meters to the oceans if it melted. Because Greenland is closer to the equator than Antarctica, temperatures are higher there, so the ice is likely to melt. University scientists say ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland combined accounts for about 12 percent of sea level rise.

But there may be a less dramatic reason than melting polar ice for higher sea levels - more high temperature water.

Water is most dense at 4 degrees Celsius.

Above and below this temperature, the density of water decreases (the same weight of water takes up more space). As the overall temperature of water increases, it naturally expands slightly causing the oceans to rise.

Less dramatic changes would occur around the world as average temperatures would increase. In areas with temperate climate with four seasons, the growing season will be longer with more rainfall. This can be useful in many ways for these areas. However, less temperate areas of the world are likely to see rising temperatures and sharp declines in precipitation, leading to prolonged droughts and potentially creating deserts.

Because Earth's climate is so complex, no one is sure how much climate change in one region will affect other regions. Some scientists theorize that decreasing sea ice in the Arctic could reduce snowfall because Arctic cold fronts would be less intense. This could affect everything from farmland to the ski industry.

What are the consequences

The most devastating effects of global warming, and also the most difficult to predict, are the responses of the world's living ecosystems. Many ecosystems are very delicate, and the slightest change can kill several species, as well as any other species that depend on them. Most ecosystems are interconnected, so the chain reaction of impacts can be immeasurable. The results could be something like a forest gradually dying off into grasslands or entire coral reefs dying.

Many plant and animal species have adapted to cope with climate change, but many have gone extinct.

Some ecosystems are already changing dramatically due to climate change. US climate scientists report that much of what was once tundra in Northern Canada is turning into forests. They also noticed that the transition from tundra to forest is not linear. Instead, the change seems to occur in fits and starts.

The human costs and consequences of global warming are difficult to quantify quantification. Thousands of lives a year can be lost as the elderly or sick suffer from heatstroke and other heat-related injuries. Poor and underdeveloped countries will suffer the worst consequences as they will not have the financial resources to deal with rising temperatures. Huge numbers of people could die from starvation if reduced rainfall limits crop growth and from disease if coastal flooding leads to widespread waterborne disease.

It is estimated that farmers lose about 40 million tons of grains like wheat, barley and corn every year. Scientists have found that an increase in average temperature of 1 degree leads to a decrease in yield by 3-5%.

Is global warming a real problem?

Despite the scientific consensus on the issue, some people don't think global warming is happening at all. There are several reasons for this:

They don't think the data shows a measurable upward trend in global temperatures, either because we don't have enough long-term historical climate data or because the data we do have isn't clear enough.

Some scientists believe the data is being misinterpreted by people already concerned about global warming. That is, these people are looking for evidence of global warming in statistics, rather than looking at the evidence objectively and trying to understand what it means.

Some argue that any increase in global temperatures we are seeing could be natural climate change, or it could be due to factors other than greenhouse gases.

Most scientists accept that global warming appears to be happening on Earth, but some don't believe it's a big deal. These scientists say the Earth is more resilient to climate change on this scale than we think. Plants and animals will adapt to subtle shifts in weather conditions, and it is unlikely that anything catastrophic will happen as a result of global warming. Slightly longer growing seasons, changes in precipitation levels and stronger weather are generally not catastrophic, they say. They also argue that the economic damage caused by reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be far more detrimental to humans than any of the effects of global warming.

In a sense, the scientific consensus may be controversial point. The real power to effect significant change lies in the hands of those who make national and global policies. Politicians in many countries are reluctant to propose and implement changes because they feel the costs may outweigh any risks associated with global warming.

Some common climate policy issues:

• Changing carbon emissions and production policies could lead to job losses.
• India and China, which continue to rely heavily on coal as their main source of energy, will continue to cause environmental problems.

Because scientific evidence is about probabilities rather than certainties, we cannot be sure that human behavior is contributing to global warming, that our contribution is significant, or that we can do anything to correct it.

Some believe that technology will find a way to get us out of the global warming mess, so any changes to our policies will ultimately be unnecessary and cause more harm than good.

What's the correct answer? This may be difficult to understand. Most scientists will tell you that global warming is real and that it will likely cause some harm, but the scale of the problem and the dangers posed by its effects are widely open to debate.

By 0.86 degrees In the 21st century, according to forecasts, the temperature increase may reach 6.5 degrees - this is a pessimistic scenario. According to optimistic estimates, it will be 1-3 degrees. At first glance, an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere does not greatly affect human life and is not very noticeable to him, and this is true. Living in the middle zone, it is difficult to feel this. However, the closer to the poles, the more obvious the impact and harm of global warming.

Currently, the average temperature on Earth is about 15 degrees. During the Ice Age it was about 11 degrees. According to scientists, humanity will feel the global warming problem when the average atmospheric temperature exceeds 17 degrees Celsius.

Causes of global warming

Around the world, experts identify many reasons that cause global warming. In essence, they can be generalized to anthropogenic, that is, caused by man, and natural.

Greenhouse effect

The main reason that leads to an increase in the average temperature of the planet can be called industrialization. An increase in production intensity, the number of factories, cars, and the planet's population affects the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. These are methane, water vapor, nitrogen oxide, carbon dioxide and others. As a result of their accumulation, the density increases lower layers atmosphere. Greenhouse gases pass through solar energy, which heats the Earth, but the heat that the Earth itself gives off is retained by these gases and not released into space. This process is called the greenhouse effect. It was first discovered and described in the first half of the 19th century.

The greenhouse effect is considered the main cause of global warming, since greenhouse gases are released in one form or another by almost any production. Most emissions come from carbon dioxide, which is released as a result of the combustion of petroleum products, coal, and natural gas. Vehicles emit exhaust fumes. Large amounts of emissions are released into the atmosphere from conventional waste incineration.

Another factor increasing the greenhouse effect is deforestation and forest fires. All this reduces the number of plants that produce oxygen, which reduces the density of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases are not only emitted industrial enterprises, but also agricultural. For example, farms of large cattle. Conventional barns are sources of another greenhouse gas - methane. This is due to the fact that ruminant cattle consume a huge amount of plants per day and, when digesting it, produce gases. This is called "ruminant flatulence." Methane accounts for less than 25% of greenhouse gases, however, than carbon dioxide.

One more anthropogenic factor The increase in the average temperature of the Earth is a large number of small particles of dust and soot. Being in the atmosphere, they absorb solar energy, heating the air and preventing the warming of the planet's surface. If they fall out, they transfer the accumulated temperature to the earth. For example, this effect has a negative impact on the snow of Antarctica. Warm particles of dust and soot when they fall heat the snow and cause it to melt.

Natural causes

Some scientists suggest that global warming is also influenced by factors to which humans have nothing to do. So, along with the greenhouse effect, solar activity is called the cause. However, this theory is subject to numerous criticisms. In particular, a number of experts argue that solar activity over the past 2000 years has been stable and therefore the reason for the change in average temperature lies in something else. In addition, even if solar activity did heat the Earth's atmosphere, this would affect all layers, not just the bottom.

Another natural cause is volcanic activity. As a result of eruptions, lava flows are released, which, in contact with water, contribute to the release of large amounts of water vapor. In addition, volcanic ash enters the atmosphere, particles of which can absorb solar energy and trap it in the air.

Consequences of global warming

The harm caused by global warming can already be traced. Over the past hundred years, the level of the world's seas has risen by 20 centimeters due to the melting of Arctic ice. Over the past 50 years, their number has decreased by 13%. Over the past year, there have been several large icebergs from the main ice mass. Also, due to global warming, abnormal heat in summer period now covers 100 times more area than 40 years ago. In the 80s, extremely hot summers occurred on 0.1% of the Earth's surface - now it is 10%.

Dangers of global warming

If no measures are taken to combat global warming, the consequences will become much more noticeable in the foreseeable future. According to ecologists, if the average temperature of the Earth continues to rise and exceeds 17-18 degrees Celsius, this will lead to the melting of glaciers (according to some sources, this is in the year 2100), as a result, the sea level will rise, which will lead to floods and other climate disasters. Thus, according to some forecasts, almost half of all land will fall into the flood zone. Changing water levels and ocean acidity will change the flora and reduce the number of animal species.

The most significant danger of global warming is the lack of fresh water and the associated changes in people’s lifestyles, savings, all kinds of crises, and changes in consumption patterns.

Another consequence of such warming could be a serious crisis in agriculture. Due to climate change within continents, it will no longer be possible to carry out the usual types of agricultural industry in one territory or another. Adapting the industry to new conditions will require a long time and a huge amount of resources. According to experts, due to global warming in Africa, food problems may begin as early as 2030.

Warming Island

A clear example of warming is the island of the same name in Greenland. Until 2005, it was considered a peninsula, but it turned out that it was connected to the mainland by ice. Having melted, it turned out that instead of a connection there was a strait. The island was renamed "Warming Island".

Fighting global warming

The main direction of the fight against global warming is the attempt to limit the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Thus, the largest environmental organizations, for example, Greenpeace or WWF, advocate abandoning investments in fossil fuels. Also, various types of actions are carried out in almost every country, but given the scale of the problem, the main mechanisms to combat it are international in nature.

Thus, within the framework of the UN Framework Convention in 1997, the Kyoto Agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions was concluded. It was signed by 192 countries around the world. Some have committed to reducing emissions by a specific percentage. For example, by 8% in the EU countries. Russia and Ukraine pledged to keep emissions in the 2000s at 1990s levels.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement that replaced the Kyoto Agreement was concluded in France; it was ratified by 96 countries. The agreement also commits countries to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the rate of increase in the planet's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrialization eras. The agreement commits countries to moving towards a green, carbon-free economy by 2020, reducing emissions and contributing money to a climate fund. Russia signed the agreement, but did not ratify it. The US withdrew from it.

06/22/2017 article

What is climate change on our planet?

To put it simply, it is an imbalance of all natural systems, which leads to changes in precipitation patterns and an increase in the number of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts; These are sudden changes in weather that are caused by fluctuations in solar radiation ( solar radiation) and, more recently, human activity.

Climate and weather

Weather is the state of the lower layers of the atmosphere in given time in this place. Climate is the average state of weather and is predictable. Climate includes indicators such as average temperature, precipitation, amount sunny days and other variables that can be measured.

Climate change is fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values ​​over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Moreover, changes in both average values ​​of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The science of paleoclimatology studies climate change.

Dynamic processes in the electrical machine of the planet are the source of energy for typhoons, cyclones, anticyclones and other global phenomena Bushuev, Kopylov “Space and Earth. Electromechanical interactions"

The cause of climate change is dynamic processes (disturbances in the balance of natural phenomena) on Earth, external influences, such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, one can add, human activity.

Glaciations

Scientists recognize glaciations as one of the most marker indicators of climate change: they increase significantly in size during climate cooling (the so-called “little ice ages”) and decrease during climate warming. Glaciers grow and melt due to natural changes and under the influence of external influences. The most significant climatic processes over the past few million years are the succession of glacial and interglacial epochs of the current ice age, caused by changes in the orbit and axis of the Earth. Changes in the state of continental ice and sea level fluctuations of up to 130 meters are key consequences of climate change in most regions.

world ocean

The ocean has the ability to accumulate (accumulate for the purpose of its subsequent use) thermal energy and move this energy to different parts of the ocean. Large-scale ocean circulation created due to density differences (a scalar physical quantity defined as the ratio of the mass of a body to the volume occupied by this body) of water, formed due to the heterogeneity of the distribution of temperature and salinity in the ocean, that is, it is caused by density gradients as a result of the action of fresh water flows and heat. These two factors (temperature and salinity) together determine the density of seawater. Wind-driven surface currents (such as the Gulf Stream) move water from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean northward.

Transit time - 1600 years of Primeau, 2005

These waters cool along the way and, as a result, due to the increase in the resulting density, sink to the bottom. Dense waters at depths move in the direction opposite to the direction of wind currents. Most of the dense waters rise back to the surface in the Southern Ocean, and the “oldest” of them (according to a transit time of 1600 years (Primeau, 2005) rise in the North Pacific Ocean, this also happens due to sea currents - constant or periodic flows in the thickness of the world's oceans and seas. There are constant, periodic and irregular currents; surface and underwater, warm and cold currents.

The most significant for our planet are the Northern and Southern Trade Winds, the Western Winds and density currents (determined by differences in water density, an example of which is the Gulf Stream and the North Pacific Current).

Thus, there is constant mixing between ocean basins within the “ocean” dimension of time, which reduces the difference between them and unites the oceans into a global system. While driving water masses constantly moving both energy (in the form of heat) and matter (particles, solutes and gases), so the large-scale ocean circulation significantly influences the climate of our planet, this circulation is often called the oceanic conveyor belt. It plays a key role in heat redistribution and can significantly influence climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciations and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate Ecocosm

In the observational aspect, the current state of the climate is not only a consequence of the influence of certain factors, but also the entire history of its state. For example, during ten years of drought, lakes partially dry up, plants die, and the area of ​​deserts increases. These conditions in turn cause less abundant rainfall in years following drought. Thus, climate change is a self-regulating process, since the environment reacts in a certain way to external influences, and, by changing, is itself capable of influencing the climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciations and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that influence the Earth's climate. On the scale of millennia, the climate-determining process will be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

Climate change is caused by changes in the earth's atmosphere, processes occurring in other parts of the Earth, such as oceans, glaciers, and, in our time, effects associated with human activities.

To completely cover the issue, it should be noted that the processes that form the climate and collect it are external processes - these are changes in solar radiation and the earth’s orbit.

Causes of climate change:

• Changing sizes, relief, relative position continents and oceans.
• Change in luminosity (the amount of energy released per unit time) of the Sun.
• Changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis.
• Changes in the transparency and composition of the atmosphere, including changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4).
• Changes in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.
• Changes in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.
• Tectonics (structure of the earth's crust in connection with geological changes occurring in it) of lithospheric plates.
• The cyclical nature of solar activity.
• Changes in the direction and angle of the Earth's axis, the degree of deviation from the circle of its orbit.

The result of the second reason in this list is the periodic increase and decrease in the area of ​​the Sahara Desert

• Volcanism.
• Human activities that change the environment and influence the climate.

The main problems of the latter factor are: the increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols affecting its cooling, industrial livestock farming and the cement industry.

Other factors such as livestock farming, land use, ozone depletion and deforestation are also believed to influence the climate. This influence is expressed by a single quantity – radiative heating of the atmosphere.

Global warming

Changes in the modern climate (towards warming) are called global warming. We can say that global warming is one of the local puzzles, and negatively colored, of the global phenomenon of “modern global climate change.” Global warming is one of the rich set of entities called “climate change on the planet,” which consists of an increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth’s climate system. It causes a whole series of troubles for humanity: melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and temperature anomalies in general.

Global warming is one of the local puzzles, and a negative one, of the global phenomenon of “modern global climate change” Ecocosm

Since the 1970s, at least 90% of warming energy has been stored in the ocean. Despite the ocean's dominant role in storing heat, the term "global warming" is often used to refer to increases in average air temperatures near land and ocean surfaces. A person can influence global warming by preventing the average temperature from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, which is determined to be critical for an environment suitable for humans. When the temperature rises by this value, the Earth's biosphere faces irreversible consequences, which, according to the international scientific community, can be suppressed by reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

By 2100, according to scientists, some countries will turn into uninhabitable territories, these are countries such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and other countries of the Middle East.

Climate change and Russia

For Russia, the annual damage from the impact of hydrometeorological phenomena amounts to 30–60 million rubles. Average temperature air at the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (from about 1750) by 0.7 o C. There are non-spontaneous climate changes - this is an alternation of cool-humid and warm-dry periods in the interval of 35 - 45 years (put forward by scientists E.A. Brickner) and spontaneous climate changes caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases due to economic activities, that is, the heating effect of carbon dioxide. Moreover, many scientists have reached a consensus that greenhouse gases have played a significant role in most climate change, and human emissions of carbon dioxide have already triggered significant global warming.

Scientific understanding of the causes of global warming has become increasingly clear over time. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) stated that there is a 90% probability that most of the temperature change is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activity. In 2010, this conclusion was confirmed by the academies of sciences of the main industrial countries. It should be added that the results of rising global temperatures are rising sea levels, changes in the amount and nature of precipitation, and an increase in deserts.

Arctic

It is no secret that warming is most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. The temperature of the permafrost layer in the Arctic has increased over 50 years from -10 to -5 degrees.

Depending on the time of year, the area of ​​the Arctic ice cover also changes. Its maximum value occurs at the end of February - beginning of April, and the minimum - in September. During these periods, “control indicators” are recorded.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began satellite surveillance of the Arctic in 1979. Until 2006, ice cover decreased by an average of 3.7% per decade. But in September 2008 there was a record jump: the area decreased by 57,000 square meters. kilometers in one year, which over a ten-year period gave a 7.5% decrease.

As a result, in every part of the Arctic and in every season, the extent of ice is now significantly lower than it was in the 1980s and 1990s.

Other consequences

Other effects of warming include: an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall; ocean acidification; extinction of species due to change temperature regime. Implications of importance for humanity include threats to food security due to negative impacts on crop yields (especially in Asia and Africa) and loss of human habitats due to rising sea levels. Increased amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will acidify the ocean.

Opposition policy

Policies to combat global warming include the idea of ​​mitigating it by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as adapting to its impacts. In the future, geological design will be possible. It is believed that in order to prevent irreversible climate change, the annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions until 2100 should be at least 6.3%.

This means that, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, on the other hand, switch to alternative sources energies relevant to the geographical location. Several energy sources are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - sun, wind, tides.

On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Climate Conference in Paris, 195 delegations from around the world approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.

Map of the effects of global warming